In a striking statement, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson forecasts that the ongoing government shutdown could potentially stretch to become the longest in U.S. history. He firmly declared on Monday that he would stand his ground and not engage in negotiations with Democrats until they pause their health care demands and agree to reopen the government.
On the 13th day of the shutdown, Johnson, representing Louisiana, was seen alone at the Capitol. He appeared unaware of the specifics surrounding the extensive layoffs affecting thousands of federal employees—a trend that some analysts suggest is strategically leveraged by the Trump administration to broaden the scope of government reduction. This unusual situation has raised eyebrows, with Vice President JD Vance sounding alarms about further 'painful' cuts looming on the horizon, despite ongoing legal actions from employee unions.
Johnson emphasized, "We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history." With no clear resolution in sight, the shutdown is projected to continue into the unforeseeable future. Its effects are widespread, halting critical government operations, closing renowned Smithsonian museums and various cultural landmarks, and causing disruptions in airport services, all of which add layers of uncertainty to an already fragile economy.
As the House remains out of legislative session, with Johnson choosing not to call lawmakers back to Washington, the Senate will reconvene on Tuesday after a closure for a federal holiday. However, they are ensnared in a series of failed votes, with Democrats unwilling to ease their stance on health care issues.
In an effort to alleviate some concerns, Johnson expressed gratitude towards former President Donald Trump for ensuring military personnel would receive their pay during the shutdown, a move that had the potential to reduce tension and encourage negotiations.
At its essence, the current shutdown revolves around health care policy, specifically focusing on the expiring subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. These subsidies are crucial for millions of Americans, allowing them to acquire health insurance through the Obamacare exchanges. While Democrats push for an extension of these subsidies, Republicans contend that this matter can be addressed later.
With a standstill between Congress and the White House, many are now looking towards the end of this month as a possible turning point for reopening government operations. This timeline coincides with the beginning of open enrollment for health insurance on November 1, at which point consumers may face soaring premiums. According to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation, failure to renew the expiring subsidies by December 31 could result in doubled monthly costs for families.
Additionally, this deadline poses significant implications for federal employees on monthly pay schedules, including numerous aides in the House, who will find themselves without paychecks.
The ongoing debate regarding health care initiatives has followed Congress since the Affordable Care Act was enacted during President Obama’s administration in 2010. This was not the first time a government shutdown occurred over health care issues; a notable 16-day shutdown took place during Obama’s presidency in 2013, initiated by Republicans attempting to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
During his first term, President Trump aimed to 'repeal and replace' Obamacare with a Republican-controlled Congress, but those efforts faltered dramatically after the pivotal thumbs-down vote from the late Senator John McCain.
Currently, with a record enrollment of 24 million people under Obamacare, Johnson remarks that Republicans are less inclined to pursue a similar repeal strategy, sharing his personal sentiment of 'PTSD' from the unsuccessful attempt.
"Can we completely repeal and replace Obamacare? Many of us now harbor skepticism because the foundations are firmly laid, " Johnson commented.
He insists that his party is open to health care discussions with Democrats this fall, but reiterates that negotiations can only progress if the government is reopened first.
The current situation risks becoming the longest shutdown recorded, surpassing the 35-day stalemate of Trump’s first term, which was predicated on his demands for border wall funding.
Lastly, significant concerns are raised about the Trump administration’s broad authority to terminate federal employees, an action that has provoked backlash from many Republicans and accusations of legal overreach from unions representing employees. This authority also extends to determining compensation for essential workers.
While military personnel are set to receive their paychecks, various departments such as Education are grappling with interruptions that affect critical programs such as special education. As the Congressional Budget Office has noted, several agencies—ranging from the Department of Defense to the Office of Management and Budget—have access to additional funding through the 2025 reconciliation act that could provide financial support during the shutdown.
