Some NFL teams are defying all expectations, performing far better than any expert predicted. But here’s where it gets controversial: How much of their early success is skill, and how much is sheer luck?
Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, for example. With just over three minutes left in their Week 5 game, the Seattle Seahawks managed to score a touchdown, snatching a late lead from Tampa Bay. In previous seasons, this situation likely would have spelled disaster for the Buccaneers. Last year, they struggled mightily in close games—winning only two matches when trailing in the fourth quarter and going just 3-5 in games decided by one score.
However, this season tells a different story. The Buccaneers have transformed into one of the most clutch teams the NFL has ever seen. Just minutes after Seattle’s go-ahead score on Sunday, quarterback Baker Mayfield orchestrated a touchdown drive to reclaim the lead. Later, a tipped pass was intercepted by Tampa Bay’s defense, paving the way for a game-winning field goal as time expired.
Their win improved their record to 4-1, with an astonishing fact: all four victories have come from scores in the final minute of regulation, setting an NFL record. No other team has ever started a season 4-1 by winning each game with a margin of three points or less.
"You never want games to come down that close," Tampa Bay’s coach Todd Bowles remarked on Monday, "but early in the season, tough, one-score matches are expected. Last year we couldn’t close them out. This year, somehow, we’ve been finding a way."
Yet, Tampa Bay’s remarkable start might not be the NFL’s most surprising story this year.
The San Francisco 49ers, who last year had their Super Bowl aspirations shattered by a slew of injuries, faced a similar challenge after Week 1 when their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, suffered a toe injury. Star tight end George Kittle also landed on the injury list soon after. In their most recent Week 5 game, the 49ers faced a depleted roster — linebacker Fred Warner described them as “wounded, down a bunch of guys,” with two additional defensive linemen sidelined by injury during the game.
Still, the 49ers managed to rally, winning in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams to reach a 4-1 record. Their three-game winning streak has been powered by backup quarterback Mac Jones.
"I think it shows how well we coach everyone equally," cornerback Deommodore Lenoir explained. "When the next guy steps up, we don’t experience any drop off. When someone goes down, our mindset never falters."
In a fitting twist, one of Week 6’s most anticipated games will see these two resilient teams collide: the 49ers visiting the Buccaneers.
Despite their impressive records, both teams show troubling signs elsewhere. According to DVOA, an advanced stat that measures team performance against league averages, both the 49ers and Buccaneers actually have negative ratings. Other analytics tell a similarly puzzling tale. The 49ers have committed more turnovers than they’ve forced and only outscored opponents by a total of eight points this season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ point differential is even slimmer, outperforming rivals by just three points. Among teams with winning records, only the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers have worse point differentials.
Could Tampa Bay’s knack for winning in the final minute simply be a streak of good luck? Their three-point victory over Atlanta to start the season came after the Falcons missed a field goal that would have tied the game. In Week 3, Tampa Bay committed 14 penalties and blew a 17-point lead but still managed to hold off the winless New York Jets, who were playing without their star quarterback.
Yet, the Buccaneers have also demonstrated undeniable resilience. On Sunday, they won despite missing a top running back and two starting offensive linemen and managed to keep their quarterback protected, allowing zero sacks.
Baker Mayfield’s performance in crunch time has been stellar this season. In the last two minutes of regular play, he has completed 15 of 20 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns, posting an exceptional passer rating of 133.1. No other quarterback has led more than two fourth-quarter comebacks so far, while Mayfield has four.
"He knows exactly how to handle two-minute situations," Coach Bowles said. "His calmness rubs off on the entire team, giving everyone confidence. He truly brings energy to the field."
On the receiving end, Tampa Bay’s Emeka Egbuka is making NFL history. With at least 25 catches and five touchdowns in his first five games, he is the only player to achieve this feat. He’s also among a select group of rookie receivers, joining elite company including Ja’Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, and Randy Moss, by accumulating over 400 receiving yards through their first five games.
"As long as there’s time left on the clock, we believe we have a chance," Mayfield said. "Our team genuinely believes it with all their heart."
But here’s the part most people miss: Are these remarkable runs a testament to superior coaching and mental toughness, or are these teams just getting lucky in close games? Could their impressive records be masking deeper flaws that advanced stats expose? And when their luck runs out, will their true quality finally emerge?
What do you think? Are the Buccaneers and 49ers the real deal, or are they riding a wave that won’t last? Sound off in the comments—do you agree or disagree?
