When rivalry week arrives with everything on the line, can a struggling team find redemption—or will the cracks finally break wide open?
The Horns247 editorial team is weighing in with their predictions for this season's highly anticipated Red River Shootout matchup.
Rivalry week has officially arrived! Though this year's Texas-Oklahoma clash doesn't quite look like what most analysts anticipated at season's start—with the Longhorns carrying two unexpected losses into the contest—the pressure couldn't be more intense. For UT, this isn't just about bragging rights anymore; it's about survival. A victory here is absolutely essential if they want to keep their SEC championship dreams and College Football Playoff aspirations breathing.
According to FanDuel SportsBook's initial lines, Texas entered as a 3.5-point favorite. But here's where it gets interesting: that spread has shrunk dramatically to just 1.5 points in recent days. Why the shift? Everyone's waiting with bated breath to learn whether Oklahoma's signal-caller John Mateer will suit up for the Sooners. The first-year starter, who's been generating Heisman buzz, appeared on Wednesday evening's injury report with a "questionable" designation—a status that's keeping both fan bases on edge.
Now, let's dive into what our Horns247 editorial team is predicting for this year's showdown.
Chip Brown's Take: Oklahoma 19, Texas 17
If the Longhorns want to walk away victorious from this one, their offensive unit needs to focus on something radically different from what we witnessed recently: they must stop shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and protect Arch Manning instead of watching him scramble desperately for survival.
Conducting what essentially amounted to open tryouts at the left guard position during the Florida matchup? That's hardly the formula for championship-caliber football. And now they're facing an Oklahoma defensive front that's brimming with confidence, explosive speed, and punishing physicality.
Consider this sobering statistic: OU has recorded 14 quarterback sacks across their last two contests—that's more than Texas has accumulated throughout the entire season (just 11). Let that sink in for a moment.
In what many consider the most electrifying gameday atmosphere in all of college sports, the team that imposes its physical will typically emerges victorious. Texas was nowhere close to being that team last Saturday in The Swamp. If the Longhorns can't discover that physical dominance inside the Cotton Bowl on Saturday and continue their penalty parade, we could witness something truly ugly unfold.
Historically speaking, Texas hasn't suffered a blowout defeat in this rivalry since way back in 2012.
Regardless of whether John Mateer takes snaps under center for OU, Texas' defensive unit must deliver a commanding performance, force critical turnovers, and create short-field scoring chances for a UT offense that's still searching for its identity at the season's midpoint.
Arch Manning has a golden opportunity to silence his critics with a winning performance on Saturday.
OU's special teams units represent a genuine strength, which means Texas' special teams cannot afford even the slightest mistake.
Too many haunting images from last week's performance linger in my mind for me to confidently pick Texas. I'd absolutely love to be proven wrong, though.
Eric Henry's Perspective: Oklahoma 21, Texas 17
There's an old gambling adage worth remembering: Las Vegas didn't construct those massive, glittering casino towers by consistently getting their predictions wrong. Yet somehow, the Longhorns enter Saturday's 121st installment of the Red River Shootout as narrow favorites over the No. 6-ranked Oklahoma Sooners.
Frankly, I'm scratching my head trying to understand the reasoning behind that line. Texas has notched three victories against Group of Five opponents who collectively sport a dismal 3-13 record—meanwhile, Brent Venables and his Sooners have defeated Auburn, Michigan, and a G5 squad in Temple who at least boast a winning record.
The massive elephant dominating every conversation is Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer's health status, which undoubtedly influences Vegas positioning Texas as a 1.5-point favorite.
Let me be crystal clear: Mateer's availability is absolutely a significant factor. However—and this is the part most people miss—if Texas can't tackle properly, establish blocking lanes, or generate consistent pass rush pressure better than they did last week in Gainesville, Mateer's status becomes irrelevant.
I'm genuinely uncertain how Steve Sarkisian and Kyle Flood can possibly resolve last week's catastrophic protection breakdowns in just seven days, unless we accept the possibility that Florida's defensive front simply presented a uniquely terrible matchup for the Longhorns' offensive line.
The troubling reality? Oklahoma's front seven might actually be superior to Florida's.
Over the previous two seasons, the Longhorns have demonstrated genuine "Texas Fight" resilience after absorbing disappointing losses (Oklahoma in 2023, Georgia in 2024).
But here's where it gets controversial: those were veteran-laden rosters filled with players who'd been knocked down before, whether during the disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2021 or the 8-5 finish in 2022. They'd experienced adversity and learned how to respond.
This year's squad will need to prove to me on Saturday that they possess that same championship DNA before I can confidently pick them as the type of team capable of bouncing back from adversity.
Hank South's Analysis: Oklahoma 24, Texas 20
I've flip-flopped on this prediction throughout the entire week, sometimes leaning toward the Longhorns, then swinging back to the Sooners.
We witnessed a team last Saturday absorb devastating punches on both sides of the football, yet still positioned themselves with a legitimate shot at tying the game in the final seconds.
That resilience gives me some optimism regarding the Longhorns' chances on Saturday—even when playing their absolute worst football, they still had a fighting chance at the end.
Something else that's been occupying my thoughts about last Saturday: the Gators were playing with a "nothing to lose" mentality. Barring some miraculous run to finish the regular season, UF isn't making the playoff this year, which allowed them to play more freely, with the guardrails completely removed. Oklahoma has substantial stakes beyond mere rivalry bragging rights that could potentially force the Sooners to play tight and conservative on Saturday afternoon.
I did ultimately pick OU to win this matchup, though, so let's transition to the pessimistic view of UT's chances.
We haven't witnessed a consistent Texas team all season long, except perhaps against Sam Houston—and that felt more like an extended practice session than an actual competitive game.
What I previously relied upon when still favoring the overall season outlook was the defense—that same unit we watched get gashed repeatedly and slip into tackling mistakes against a Gators offense that had otherwise been stagnant throughout the entire season.
Perhaps that embarrassing performance served as the necessary wake-up call this team needed to realize they can't simply rely on the defense constantly bailing out the offense.
I'm just not prepared to predict a Texas victory here against a formidable Sooners defense and a quarterback who's instilled genuine belief in Norman (assuming Mateer plays).
Jordan Scruggs' Prediction: Texas 16, Oklahoma 13
If this analysis had been published earlier in the week, I'd likely have the scores reversed. However, as we've progressively moved closer to kickoff, I've started gaining increasing confidence in Steve Sarkisian and Texas' offensive unit rebounding from last week's disastrous showing. I've already made peace with the reality that the offensive line will struggle and am fully anticipating Arch Manning getting sacked at least 4-5 times, but I'll be genuinely shocked if the gameplan doesn't look vastly different from what we saw against Florida.
For Texas to have any realistic shot at winning this contest, the Longhorns absolutely must establish their perimeter passing attack. Whether that means deploying screens or RPO concepts, Texas needs to dial back the deep passing obsession and instead concentrate on powering their aerial attack through short and intermediate routes. I'm not suggesting they abandon deep shots entirely, but the sheer volume of deep attempts must decrease significantly for Texas to exit the Cotton Bowl victorious.
With the offensive line failing to generate push in the ground game and Texas' running back room lacking a genuine difference-maker or explosive playmaker, the Longhorns will need to manufacture a rushing offense through creative means—utilizing the perimeter passing game or deploying running backs in the screen game. While there were certainly questionable decisions regarding scheme, play-calling, and personnel deployment in the Florida game, my confidence in Steve Sarkisian's ability to devise a different yet successful offensive strategy is the foundation behind my prediction that the Longhorns secure a narrow victory. The Longhorns sit just one loss away from a 3-3 record at the season's halfway mark and 0-2 in conference play, and I believe Sarkisian will summon enough creativity offensively to extract a win with his back firmly pressed against the wall.
Regardless of the final outcome, I cannot envision this game being anything other than a nail-biter. Both teams will need to convert their field goal opportunities given that both squads feature elite-level defenses, and there's a legitimate possibility that the victor emerges because of a defensive touchdown. As happens every single year in this rivalry, literally anything can transpire once a foot strikes the ball on the opening kickoff, but as of early Thursday afternoon, I'm favoring the chances of Sarkisian and company getting sufficiently creative to manufacture enough points for victory.
So here's my question for you: Are we witnessing a Texas team that's genuinely broken, or one that's about to prove every doubter wrong when it matters most? Can Sarkisian's offensive genius overcome a struggling offensive line, or will Oklahoma's defensive front expose the Longhorns' fatal flaws? Drop your honest predictions in the comments—and don't hold back if you think this analysis is completely off base!
